SoMa, South Beach & Mission Bay
Quarterly Statistics
Source: All statistics are from the San Francisco Association of Realtors, Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
1-Bedroom Condos
Quarterly Prices vs. SF Median
Median prices peaked in Q2-05 for the San Francisco market as a whole and are down modestly since then. While the same is true for the greater SoMa area, pricing for 1-bed condos held up well in 2006 when compared with median prices of 1-bed condos in SF as a whole.
Notice the median price premim for SoMa vs SF went from near parity at the beginning of 2006 to over 10% in Q4. While there is some older condo stock in SoMa, new buildings are coming on line each year. As this happens, a greater percentage of the resale market will be made up of the newer, more modern properties, like the Brannan, the Beacon, the Palms and many others. This should result in a widening of the SoMa price premium relative to the SF market.
* Figures current through December 31, 2008.
2-Bedroom Condos
Quarterly Prices vs. SF Median
Again, the SF market as a whole had a median price peak for virtually all property types, including 2-bed condos in Q2-05. This was also the peak for median prices of 2-bed Condos in the greater SoMa area. While the SF market has declined modestly since then, the greater SoMa area has pulled back a little more. The median price for 2-bed condos decreased in SF as a whole by 6.5%, while greater SoMa decreased nearly 18% in this period.
However, Q4 is consistently the weakest quarter and with SoMa trading at a significant premium to the SF market, both expansion and compression will be more pronounced for SoMa. As the market firms up into the Spring and Summer, expect prices in SoMa to firm up as well.
* Figures current through December 31, 2008.
Cost per Foot
Notice that the cost per foot for 2-bedroom propterties is higher than 1-bedroom for most of the data points in this series. This is very anomalous! In most places and for most property types, there is a pronounced and statistically significant "economies of scale" effect that makes larger properties less expensive on a cost per square foot basis.
Nevertheless, the cost per square foot has been very consistent for both 1 & 2-bed condos and is a very useful check point on the fair market value of a property for sale.
Views and proximity to the bay will tend to skew a properties cost per foot higher than these averages.
* Figures current through December 31, 2008.
Quarterly Unit Sales
For the past two years there have been an average of 13 one-bedroom and 14 two-bedroom Condos sold per month in the greater SoMa area.
Going into January 2007, there were 24 one-bed properties and 31 two-bed properties actively listed for sale. This is about a 2-month supply, which is characteristic of a fairly balanced and healthy market.
